All impacts are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. 4.1 Threat table Table 3 outlines the key threats and impacts facing the ecological community.

Climate change Timing Climate change is a significant threat; and its impacts are likely to be played out in ongoing the ecological community through interactions with other threatening processes; including habitat loss and degradation; invasion of exotic species and changes to hydrological and fire regimes (Auld Keith 2009; Dunlop Brown 2008).

Severity major For example; a generally warming and drying climate in south eastern Australia has contributed to extreme weather events and unprecedented fire across the Scope whole entire NSW coast during 2019 2020 (Gallagher et al. 2021).

Fire frequency; intensity and extent are expected to increase under climate change as temperatures rise; rainfall variability increases; droughts become more severe and ecosystem dynamics alter; resulting in changed biomass fuel loads and types.

The projected hotter; drier; windier conditions associated with climate change would extend the period of fuel drying and increase rates of fire spread (Harrison Kelley 2017).

Climate change is also likely to intensify drought events (Dai 2012 Mitchell et al. 2016); which increases the potential for water being diverted away from the ecological community for consumptive use in response to water sharing arrangements.

Climate change is also likely to increase impacts from invasive weeds and fauna; such as allowing cane toads to spreading further south.

Shifts in the distribution of this ecological community is one potential response to climate change.

The following are EPBC listed key threatening processes; current at the date of writing; that may be relevant to the ecological community or specific plants and animals that comprise it Land clearance Loss of climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases Loss and degradation of native plant and animal habitat by invasion of escaped garden plants; including aquatic plants Novel biota and their impact on biodiversity (including the effects of Myrtle Rust (Austropuccinia psidii) and feral deer).

Other threats; such as potential adverse impacts from climate change are likely to exacerbate these threats and further contribute to loss of integrity over time.

Diminishing population recruitment of key canopy species is the likely outcome within a climate change scenario.

After years of land clearing in for example; South East Queensland; the combined threats from ongoing clearing and habitat degradation; feral predators and weeds; grazing; altered fire regimes; diseases and pathogens; altered hydrology and climate change have been linked to local and regional extinctions of fauna species.

Climate change; sea level rise and coastal squeeze Major impacts of climate change are likely to be played out in the ecological community through interactions with other threatening processes; including habitat loss and degradation; invasion of exotic species and changes to hydrological and fire regimes (Auld Keith 2009; Dunlop Brown 2008).

For example; a generally warming and drying climate in southern and eastern Australia is likely to significantly reduce run off to coastal rivers and streams within the range of the ecological community (DCC 2009).

Climate change is also likely to intensify drought events (Dai 2012 Mitchell et al. 2016); which increases the potential for water being diverted away from the ecological community for consumptive use in response to water sharing arrangements.

Shifts in the distribution of this ecological community are a plausible response to climate change; but the area to shift into may not be available or suitable; because of coastal development; soil types or competition with other vegetation communities (Paice Chambers 2016).

Climate changes is also likely to increase impacts from invasive weeds and fauna; such cane toads spreading further south.

Fire frequency; intensity and size are expected to increase under climate change as temperatures rise; rainfall variability increases; droughts become more severe and ecosystem dynamics alter; resulting in changed biomass fuel loads and types.

The projected hotter; drier; windier conditions associated with climate change would extend the period of fuel drying and increase rates of fire spread (Harrison Kelley 2017).

The conservation status of the Black Grass dart Butterfly; Ocybadistes knightorum a species at risk from climate change.

Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.

These areas of the ecological community will continue to be affected by altered hydrological regimes through the construction of drains and water impoundments fertilisers and discharge of pesticides and pollutants associated with agricultural production; as well as along drainage lines exposure of sulfidic sediments and the consequent acidification of soils sea level rise and associated water table salinisation and invasion of exotic plant species.

A drier regime; which may occur as a result of farm dams; flood mitigation and drainage works; levee and weir construction and water extraction can result in the dominant species of ecological community being replaced by other native species (such as Casuarina spp.) or weeds such as Prickly Pear; subsequently altering the structure and composition of both vegetation and fauna (Pressey Griffith 1992; Kingsford 2000 cited in NSW Scientific Committee 2011 NSW DPI 2016 Queensland Government 2019a).