There were worries that the destruction of forests would result in climatic change; and a considerable debate raged in scientific circles in the 1870s and 1880s about this.

Christophel (1981) and Lange (1982) regard this as indicating a tropical sub tropical temperature regime; but Nix (1982) suggests that the fossil leaf assemblages clearly indicate a mesothermal climate and that climatic interpretation of macrofossil evidence need not be greatly at variance with that from the microfossils. a The Oligocene; which palaeoclimatic interpretation (Kemp 1981a) suggests would have been a period of considerable environmental change in Australia; is; palae botanically; a period of relative stability with Late Eocene vegetation types persisting but with reduced diversity.

The climatic changes that have occurred were in response to the fluctuations in the polar icecaps.

The period is characterised by decreasing precipitation and increasing climatic variability that has caused a general reduction in rainforest at the expense of sclerophyll forests; woodlands; shrublands and also grasslands.

The area was one of the main centres of rainforest at the time of European settlement; and has probably acted as a refuge during the climatic changes of the Quarternary.

As a result of its movement; and of global climatic changes; it has experienced great variation in its climatic conditions. as At the start of the Tertiary; in the Palaeocene; Australia was in much higher latitudes and part of a far larger continental mass.

While the climate may; a result; have had continental features; the temperature regime was very different from that experienced at comparable latitudes at the present day.

While this cooling would both reflect and influence global climate; the nature of climatic changes within Australia for much of the Cainozoic is still imperfectly understood.

Of the climatic parameters; temperature and rainfall are the most important.

Variation in species composition along altitudinal gradients within sub tropical rainforest may be related to temperature; while floristic variation between stands may reflect both small climatic differences and edaphic variation between sites.

The decline in rainforest; and the spread of sclerophyll communities following the onset of drier climatic conditions in the Miocene may have been hastened by an increased incidence of fire promoted by the drier climate.

Changes in fire regimes in the communities adjacent to rainforest (whether brought about by climatic change or by man’s activities) will be the major factor influencing the future distribution of rainforest.

Fire is an increasing threat to rainforest as conditions become drier; and rainforest becomes restricted to sites which confer some degree of protection from fire (by virtue of topography; aspect or the provision of fire barriers in the form of rock exposures).

Less ground litter and deeper rooting habits of some dry rainforests render them less likely to support a low intensity ground fire but; in extreme conditions; they are vulnerable to devastating canopy or ‘crown’ fire.

Notwithstanding the pitfalls associated with the method (Wolfe 1990; Greenwood 1992); leaf physiognomic analyses provide a good general indication of climatic and vegetational change that broadly correlates with those inferred from independent physical means (see Collinson 1990).

The distribution and composition of rainforest communities changes continuously; and over longer periods significantly; in response to climatic change.

Analysis of macrofossils and fossil pollen as discussed above and in relation to Criterion (i) reveals dramatic vegetation changes over the last 50 to 60 million years; with global climates ranging from ‘greenhouse’ conditions of the Early Tertiary to icehouse’ cycles of the Quaternary.

Superimposed on the global climate changes were those resulting from Australia moving 3 000 kilometres northward at a rate of 6 centimetres a year through a range of climatic belts.

Contraction of rainforests to eastern Australia initiated in the mid to late Miocene was greatly accelerated during the extreme oscillations in climate during the last two million years.

Intersection with other conservation issues Future of Gondwana Rainforests under climate change Climate change has been identified as the key threat to this World Heritage property (CSIRO; 2019).

Climate projections for the broader Gondwana Rainforests region include increased average temperatures in all seasons (very high confidence). more hot days and warm spells with a substantial increase in the temperature reached on hot days; the frequency of hot days; and the duration of warm spells (very high confidence). a possible modest decrease in rainfall that is strongest in winter and modest increase in summer rainfall in the northern part of the region but there is low confidence in these projections due to a very large spread of increases to decreases across climate models. increased severity of extreme rainfall events higher surface solar radiation (i.e. decreased overall cloud cover) decreased relative humidity (although modest in winter) higher evapotranspiration.

Even small climatic changes are predicted to change the distribution patterns of many endemic species and vegetation communities.

State of Conservation Gondwana Rainforests of Australia April moisture tolerances will be particularly susceptible Climate change impacts could be expected to increase under the climate projections described above.

Increasing climate variability is predicted to lead to increasing moisture stress within these forests.

Climate change is also predicted to exacerbate other threatening processes such as invasive species and pathogens; as well as fire regimes.

While interactions between climate change and fire regimes are complex; it is expected that the fire season will become more severe and longer in duration across the Gondwana Rainforests.

However; these rainforests contracted as climatic conditions changed and the continent drifted northwards.

Climate change will impact particularly on those relict species in restricted habitats at higher altitudes; where particular microclimatic conditions have enabled these species to survive.

The bushfires caused extensive damage to visitor infrastructure and assets; while extreme rainfall events that followed the fires have contributed to further damage to park access roads; fire trails; walking tracks; visitor areas; safety barriers; elevated structures and boundary fences.

Fires did not impact Mount Chingee National Park New South Wales 20 of the 28 Gondwana Rainforests reserves were fire affected; including Border Ranges; Koreelah Nightcap; Mount Clunie; Mount Nothofagus; Tooloom; Washpool; Gibraltar Range; New England; Oxley Wild Rivers; Werrikimbe; Willi Willi; Mount Royal and Barrington Tops National Parks and Mount Hyland; The Castles and Mount Seaview Nature Reserves.

The combination of long term drought (moisture deficiency) and extreme fire weather (high temperatures; strong winds; exceptionally low humidity) resulted in fire impacting on fire sensitive mesic forest types in a way not previously observed.

The drought had resulted in defoliation of trees in some of the gully rainforests within Oxley Wild Rivers National Park; increasing the ability of fire to burn through the understory.

Fire impacts on Queensland reserves overview Lamington; Mount Barney and Main Range National Parks were significantly impacted by fire.

Significant areas of fire sensitive subtropical and dry rainforests were burnt (see Table 3 and Table 4); and the iconic Binna Burra Lodge was destroyed.

Significant areas of fire sensitive subtropical and dry rainforests were burnt with incursions into cooler; moister upland rainforests.

Southern side of Mt Lindsay; Border Ranges National Park (Qld) Subtropical rainforest impacted by fire running up though the wet sclerophyll vegetation and into the steep slopes.

Border Ranges National Par Murwillumbah Nightcap National Park Kyogle Byron Bay Lismore Casino Alstonville Ballina Tenterfield Woodburn Evans Head Maclean Yamba Washpool National Park Gibraltar Range National Park Grafton Glen Innes Inverell Mount Hyland Nature Reserve Woolgoolga Guyra Coffs Harbour Dorrigo Sawtell Bellingen Armidale Nambucca Heads Macksville Manilla New England National Park South West Rocks Tamworth Kempsey Oxley Wild Rivers National Park Werrikimbe National Park Port Macquarie Quirindi Wauchope Laurieton Murrurundi Barrington Tops National Park Wingham Gloucester Tareé Aberdeen Muswellbrook Tuncurry Forster kru GEEBAM V3.0 classes (within Gondwana Rainforests only) DatumProjection GCS GDA Little change N Fire Severity in the Gondwana Rainforests World Heritage Area Viewed with GEEBAM V3.

Many impacted areas have had high intensity fire likely to have burnt refuge areas.

An immediate estimate of fire impact on habitat suggested that the impact on the species would be high.

Myrtle rust disease is a novel threat that has the capability to significantly alter the dynamics of post fire regeneration (Pegg et al. 2017 Pegg et al. 2018) and to change the eventual floristic composition of regenerating sites and plant communities in the 2019 20 fire zone; in which the Myrtaceae family dominates or plays a significant ecological role The extreme decline of Archirhodomyrtus beckleri and Gossia hillii in the subtropical rainforest of northern NSW and south east Queensland (Pegg et al. 2017) is of concern.

This immediate response is targeted at all bushfire impacted areas; including World Heritage areas such as the Gondwana Rainforests.

Longer term recovery Rainforests are highly fire sensitive ecosystems and can be significantly impacted even at very low fire severity.

Threatened Flora Zieria montana; Bertya ernestiana; Tetramolopium vagans; Agiortia cicatricata; Euphrasia bella; Pimelea umbratica; Dendrobium schneiderae var. schneiderae; Leionema elatius subsp. beckleri; Pultenaea whiteana; Pseudanthus pauciflorus subsp. pauciflorus; Bulbophyllum weinthalii subsp. weinthalii; Leptospermum barneyense; Sarcochilus hartmannii; Hibbertia monticola; Brachyscome ascendens; Coopernookia scabridiuscula; Comesperma breviflorum; Muellerina myrtifolia; Sarcochilus weinthalii; Phlegmariurus varius; Gonocarpus hirtus and Clematis fawcettii. . at https www.environment.nsw.gov.au topics parks reserves and protected areas fire park recovery and rehabilitation recovering from 2019 20 fires State of Conservation Gondwana Rainforests of Australia April Threatened and at risk invertebrates (to be identified by Queensland Museum).

The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements was established on 20 February 2020; in response to Australia’s extreme bushfire season.

The combination of long term drought (moisture deficiency) and extreme fire weather (high temperatures; strong winds; exceptionally low humidity) resulted in fire impacting on fire sensitive mesic forest types in a way not previously observed.

The drought had resulted in defoliation of trees in some of the gully rainforests within Oxley Wild Rivers National Park; increasing the ability of fire to burn through the understory.

Additional information Key conservation issues Climate change Global Climate change has already been identified as a threatening cause; debatably increasing the strength and frequency of cyclones; flooding; drought; and temperature rise leading to uncontrolled wildfires.

Fire risks will probably increase with climate change.

Temperature changes Very High Threat Inside site Outside site Potential threats include higher temperatures; Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations periods of prolonged drought a rise in the orographic cloud layer exacerbation of fire regimes that are inappropriate to maintenance of rainforest species (ANU; 2009).

Floods; cyclones; drought and increase in temperatures have already caused problems and are expected to increase.

Temperature changes Very High Threat Inside site Outside site Potential threats include higher temperatures; Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations periods of prolonged drought a rise in the orographic cloud layer exacerbation of fire regimes that are inappropriate to maintenance of rainforest species (ANU; 2009).

Storms Flooding; Temperature extremes High Threat Inside site; throughout( 50 ) Outside site Climate change; resulting in increased temperatures; more frequent and intense storms; and changes to the cloud base; mist availability or rainfall is emerging as a high threat to the property’s OUV.

The area boundary ratio of fragmented reserves increases exposure to threats such as weed and pathogen invasion; changes the microclimate of otherwise intact rainforest and potentially has negative impacts on natural biological processes (including altitudinal and latitudinal migration in response to climate change) (IUCN Consultation; 2017).

Climate change; intense wildfires and invasive pests may be leading to local extirpation of disjunct and genetically divergent populations of species such as mountain mist frogs (Kyarranus Philoria) (IUCN Consultation; 2017).

Causes of decline are still unclear and may be due to several factors including loss of habitat due to feral animals; weed infestation; change in river flows due to upstream timber harvesting and urban development; fish predation; climate change and Chytrid infection (Hines et al.; 2004 Hunter Gillepsie; 2011).

Species with wide climatic distributions are likely to adapt to a moderate change in temperature.

However; some species such as Tyron’s skink (Eulamprus tryoni) and the beech skink (Pseudemoia zia) are only found above 800 m ASL; so may be affected by a moderate rise in temperature as their climatic envelope disappears off the top of the mountains (ANU 2009).

Temperature extremes Very High Threat Inside site Outside site Potential threats include higher temperatures; Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations periods of prolonged drought a rise in the orographic cloud layer exacerbation of fire regimes that are inappropriate to maintenance of rainforest species (ANU; 2009).

However; there is the lingering prospect that the catastrophe is a clear sign of the impact of climate change on weather patterns; and that these changes will not be reversed easily.

Habitat Shifting Alteration; Droughts; Temperature High Threat extremes; Storms Flooding Inside site; throughout( 50 ) Outside site (Climate change) Climate change; resulting in increased average temperatures in all seasons; more hot days and warm spells with a substantial increase in the temperature reached on hot days; frequent and intense storms; and changes to the cloud base; mist availability; humidity or rainfall is emerging as one of the greatest challenges for the protection of Gondwana Rainforests World Heritage values (CSIRO; 2019).

Climate change is also predicted to exacerbate other threatening processes such as invasive species and pathogens; as well as fluctuations in rainfall patterns and altered fire regimes.

The fires were preceded by a prolonged drought and were coincident with a period of above average temperatures and below average rainfall (Australian Bureau of Meteorology Special Climate Statement 71; September 2019).

The long term drought and above average daily mean temperatures were predicted by climate change models; and they are directly linked to the extent and severity of the wildfires (NSW DPC; 2020).

Temperature extremes Very High Threat (Climate change) Inside site; throughout( 50 ) Outside site Potential threats include higher temperatures; periods of prolonged drought a rise in the orographic cloud layer and exacerbation of fire regimes that are inconsistent with the persistence of rainforest species (ANU; 2009).

While longer term impacts and recovery prospects are still being evaluated (State Party of Australia; 2020); it is clear that given the predicted further change in the climatic conditions; this threat will only continue to increase.

Evidence of this can be seen in the climate change driven wildfires of 2019 2020.

These have included the threat of the invasive pathogen that causes the disease chytridiomycosis in amphibians; and the role of climate change on high mountain frogs.

These include surveys of the distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi and the amphibian chytrid fungus; and the potential impact of climate change on high altitude vertebrate populations.

Another example of strategic research is a current high level research project investigating the impact of climate change on cloud layer elevation and moisture acquisition by upland rainforest plant communities.

Considerable concern has been raised by botanists due to several threatening processes; including invasive weeds; pathogens and climate change.

Climate change is also a major concern since increased temperature; reduced rainfall and humidity over long periods that result in drought conditions increase physiological stress on individuals; and catastrophic events such as wild fires (Laidlaw et al.; 2016).

The Rufous Scrub bird occurs in a series of high altitude relictual populations and there are concerns that it may be impacted by rising temperatures and or other effects of climate change such as periodic drought; and in recent years wildfire.

The numbers of observations are low and restricted to higher altitudes and the postulate is that they are sensitive to climatic change.

Unfortunately; species distribution modelling has shown that these frogs are likely to be highly susceptible to climate warming and future prospects for the persistence of the species; especially for some of the small isolated remnants; are dire (Keith et al.; 2014 Willacy et al.; 2018 Lopez; 2015).

Causes of decline are still unclear and may be due to several factors including loss of habitat due to feral animals; weed infestation; change in river flows due to upstream timber harvesting and urban development; fish predation; climate change and Chytrid infection (Hines et al.; 2004 Hunter and Gillepsie; 2011).

More recent studies have indicated that climate warming will be a threat to the persistence of several of the frog species (Hagger et al.; 2013 Willacy et al.; 2015).

However; some species such as Tyron’s skink Karma tryoni and the beech skink Harrisoniascincus zia are only found above m ASL; so may be affected by a moderate rise in temperature as their climatic envelope disappears off the top of the mountains (ANU; 2009).

Areas of fire affected rainforest where the rainforest has had large scale impacts such as canopy loss are now carrying a vastly increased surface layer weed load of relatively common weed species.

This is a cumulative impact of the fires; animals that survived the fire needed to move more widely to obtain food and shelter; but are prone to predation in the opened vegetation communities.

Threatened species post fire recovery projects for priority species including Eastern bristlebird; rufous scrub bird; Coxen’s fig parrot; Albert’s lyrebird; glossy black cockatoo; brush tailed rock wallaby; New Holland mouse; Hastings River mouse; cascade treefrog; Fleay’s barred frog; red and yellow mountain frog; spotted tailed quoll and long nosed potoroo; key at risk invertebrates; Zieria montana; Bertya ernestiana; Tetramolopium vagans; Agiortia cicatricata; Euphrasia bella; Pimelea umbratica; Dendrobium schneiderae var. schneiderae; Leionema elatius subsp. beckleri; Pultenaea whiteana; Pseudanthus pauciflorus subsp. pauciflorus; Bulbophyllum weinthalii subsp. weinthalii; Leptospermum barneyense; Sarcochilus hartmannii; Hibbertia monticola; Brachyscome ascendens; Coopernookia scabridiuscula; Comesperma breviflorum; Muellerina myrtifolia; Sarcochilus weinthalii; Phlegmariurus varius; Gonocarpus hirtus and Clematis fawcettii.

Recent wildfires have demonstrated the vulnerability of the World Heritage values of the site to increased temperature; drought conditions and catastrophic events.

Acknowledging the extensive damage of fires to natural and cultural World Heritage properties since 2019; and the growing threat of forest and bushfires to certain natural properties and their cultural values; including as a result of climate change impacts; 29.

Notes that the pressures on historic urban areas arising from inappropriate or inconsistent development controls; rapid; uncontrolled and planned development; including large development projects; additions that are incompatible in their ne; mass tourism; as well as the accumulated impact of incremental changes have continued within numerous World Heritage properties and in their buffer zones and settings; and considers that these present potential and actual major threats to the Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) of properties; including their integrity and authenticity; as well as increasing their vulnerability to disasters; including those resulting from climate change 31.

Requests the State Party to invite a joint World Heritage Centre IUCN Reactive Monitoring mission centred around ensuring that the revised Reef 2050 Plan addresses the threat posed to the property by climate change and determines a pathway for accelerated actions in other areas affecting the conservation of the property 9.

Also recalling Decision 41 COM 7 in which the Committee ‘reiterate d the importance of States Parties undertaking the most ambitious implementation of the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre industrial levels and by pursuing efforts to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre industrial levels; recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change ; strongly invites all States Parties to undertake actions to address Climate Change under the Paris Agreement consistent with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities; in the light of different national circumstances; that are fully consistent with their obligations within the World Heritage Convention to protect the OUV of all World Heritage properties 10.

Also recalling Decision 41 COM 7; adopted at its 41st session (Krakow; 2017); which reiterated the importance of States Parties undertaking the most ambitious implementation of the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); notes with concern that climate change is recognized as an increasing threat to the property; and further welcomes the efforts of the State Party to develop an understanding of projected changes resulting from climate change in relation to the property’s OUV and to strengthen climate and disaster resilience 10.

Expresses its utmost concern that severe drought since 2019 has resulted in wildfires that have impacted around 4.3 million hectares; around 32 of the wider Pantanal biome; which includes the property; resulting in negative impacts on biodiversity; climate WHC 21 44.COM 18; p.

Also takes note of the strategies and instruments elaborated to address the issue of climate change; and encourages furthermore the State Party to continue its efforts in this regard to minimize the negative impacts of climate change; such as the development of a Regional Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change for the Guanacaste Conservation Area 12.

Endorses the draft Policy Document on Climate Action for World Heritage ; as presented in Annex 1 of Document WHC 21 44.COM 7C; and requests the World Heritage Centre; in consultation with the Advisory Bodies; to revise it by incorporating views expressed and amendments submitted during the extended 44th session and; as appropriate; to consult Committee members; especially concerning the following points a) the fundamental principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR RC); which is one of the basic pillars of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); b) the alignment of climate change mitigation actions with the CBDR RC and the Nationally Determined Contributions accepted under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement; except on an entirely voluntary basis; c) the need for support and capacity building assistance; as well as the encouragement of technology transfer and financing from developed to developing countries 8.

Recalls Decision 41 COM 7 and reiterates the importance of States Parties undertaking the most ambitious implementation of the Paris Agreement of the UNFCCC; and strongly invites all States Parties to ratify the Paris Agreement at the earliest possible opportunity and to undertake actions to address Climate Change under the Paris Agreement consistent with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities; in light of different national circumstances; that are fully consistent with their obligations within the World Heritage Convention to protect the Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) of all World Heritage properties WHC 21 44.COM 18; p.

Urges States Parties and all stakeholders of the Convention to urgently integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in risk preparedness policies and action plans; in order to protect the OUV of all World Heritage properties; in line with the Policy Document on Climate Action for World Heritage 16.

Thus; the property is of high global value for the protection of many endemic and globally threatened species; and contains the most important and significant remaining natural habitats for in situ conservation of the unique and rich biodiversity of the central and southern part of the archipelago.

Criterion (x) The property represents a distinctive area of outstanding biodiversity within the wider Caucasus Global Biodiversity Hotspot; where a rich flora and fauna adapted to warm temperate and extremely humid climate is concentrated.

Logging activities in the vicinity of component parts can cause microclimatic changes and nutrient mobilising effects; with negative impacts on the integrity of the property.

Climate change already poses a risk to some component parts and further impacts can be anticipated; including changes in species composition and habitat shifting.

These buffer zones will be regularly monitored to ensure protection under changing environmental conditions such as climate change.

Reiterates its concerns that no satisfactory basis for conservation has been defined that is underpinned by research into appropriate alternative materials to cement; which does not provide a suitable long term material given its susceptibility to cracks and water ingress in the local hot and humid climatic conditions; and notes that the complete or partial reconstruction of sculptures is still being undertaken 6.

Expresses its utmost concern about the unprecedented fires that affected large parts of the property and significantly impacted some areas and habitats; and commends the State Party for its immediate fire fighting responses; including those targeting specific attributes of the Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) of the property; such as the Wollemi pine stands 4.

Expresses its concern about the increasing number of intense fires in the property and its surroundings; and regrets that no information on the impacts of the fire of October 2020 was provided by the State Party 4.