Right now; our iconic marine environment is coming under more and more pressure from industry; from pollution and; increasingly; from climate change.

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 m to 1.0 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 m to 1.0 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Increased sea temperature as a result of climate change is expected to affect all Australian seagrass habitats through impacts on their growth; distribution; abundance and survival (Campbell et al. 2006 Connolly 2009).

Increased storm intensity is a primary way in which dugong populations might be severely affected by climate change; due to its impact on seagrass resources at the local scale (Lawler et al. 2007).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 m to 1.0 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

There is insufficient nesting habitat to accommodate a large increase in displacement of seabirds and shorebirds from the North west Marine Region to the South west Marine Region as a result of shifts in climate change.

Red footed booby Fairy tern Lesser crested tern Little tern Roseate tern Physical habitat modification (climate change) Greater sand plover Grey plover Increased frequencies of extreme storm events are predicted to significantly alter coastal landscapes; particularly sandy beaches and low lying islands; resulting in changes to the structure; function and capacity of coastal ecosystems to deliver ecosystem function (Fitzgerald et al. 2008 Hopkinson et al. 2008 Schlacher et al. 2008 Mcleod et al. 2010 Erwin et al. 2011).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 m to 1.0 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Although there is little empirical data on the effects of climate change on whale sharks; there is some evidence to suggest that the abundance of whale sharks at Ningaloo is correlated to various climatic conditions therefore; changes in climate could potentially alter this relationship.

It is possible that changes in temperatures as a result of climate change could magnify the climate related seasonal abundance of these species at Ningaloo Reef.

Climate change modelling predicts that ocean warming will cause large southward shifts in the distribution of many tropical and subtropical zooplankton; displacing many local species; and the earlier annual appearance of many groups (Hobday et al. 2006).

Pressures of potential concern on the ecological values of this key ecological feature include offshore construction and the installation of infrastructure associated with oil and gas these actions could potentially affect pelagic and benthic species and communities and water quality oil pollution from petroleum infrastructure that could have adverse consequences on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity as coral ecosystems are vulnerable to oil and a number of species aggregate at Seringapatam Reef and the Commonwealth waters in the Scott Reef complex invasive species physical habitat modification as a result of vessel anchorage and fishing practices by traditional Indonesian fishers marine debris changes in sea temperature; ocean acidification; sea level rise and increases in storm intensity as a result of climate change. . .

Pressures of potential concern on the ecological values of this key ecological feature include ocean acidification as a result of climate change.

Pressures of potential concern on the biodiversity values of this key ecological feature include ocean acidification as a result of climate change.

Pressures of potential concern on the integrity of habitats and biodiversity values of this key ecological feature are extraction of living resources by commercial fishing marine pest incursions ocean acidification and changes in sea temperature as a result of climate change. . 180

Marine bioregional plan for the North west Marine Region Generally; most actions in or adjacent to the Glomar Shoals are unlikely to impact adversely on the ecosystem functioning and integrity of this key ecological feature.

Pressures of potential concern on the biodiversity and integrity of habitat values of this key ecological feature include marine pest incursions oil pollution from offshore petroleum development; which have the potential to impact on water quality climate change related pressures; particularly sea level rise; changes in sea temperature and ocean acidification. .

Pressures of potential concern on the biodiversity values of this key ecological feature include ocean acidification as a result of climate change.

Pressures of potential concern on the biodiversity values of this key ecological feature include ocean acidification as a result of climate change.

Pressures of potential concern on the biodiversity values of this key ecological feature are the introduction of invasive species; which may adversely impact on the biological diversity and ecological integrity values of this feature oil pollution from petroleum infrastructure that could have adverse consequences on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity as coral ecosystems are vulnerable to oil and a number of species aggregate in Commonwealth waters adjacent to Ningaloo changes to sea temperature and ocean acidification as a result of climate change.

These climate change related pressures may impact coral reef and sponge ecosystems and alter localised productivity and or community structures and species distribution. 184

Marine bioregional plan for the North west Marine Region Actions that; irrespective of where they occur; have a real chance or possibility of substantially changing water quality (including temperature) such that there is an adverse impact on the biodiversity; ecosystem functioning or integrity of the Commonwealth waters adjacent to Ningaloo Reef have a high risk of a significant impact on the Commonwealth marine environment.

Pressures of potential concern on the biodiversity and ecological integrity values of this key ecological feature include ocean acidification as a result of climate change.

Pressures of potential concern on the biodiversity values of this key ecological feature are physical habitat modification as a result of fishing gear (active and derelict) bycatch from commercial fishing ocean acidification and changes in sea temperatures as a result of climate change. . .

Other pressures of potential concern for the Australian snubfin and Indo Pacific humpback dolphins are marine debris; bycatch in commercial fisheries and climate change.

Oil pollution may decrease the availability of preferred seagrass species and disrupt breeding cycles; increase mortality and or reduce calving extraction of living resources from Indigenous harvest invasive species sea level rise and changes in ocean temperatures as a result of climate change. .

Pressures rated as of potential concern on sea snakes in and adjacent to the North west Marine Region include oil pollution as a result of oil spills sea snakes are vulnerable to oil spills (AMSA 2010 Watson et al. 2009) as they are air breathers and obligate bottom feeders; and in the event of an oil spill; hydrocarbons; residues and any dispersants used to treat oil spills may be inhaled or ingested (Gagnon 2009) bycatch from commercial fishing physical habitat modification and or a reduction in water quality as a result of onshore and offshore construction activities changes in sea temperature and ocean acidification as a result of climate change. .

Pressures of potential concern on seabirds in the region are human presence at sensitive sites disturbance of colonies during the breeding season and modification of nesting habitat may affect the reproduction of some populations some seabird species are likely to abandon their nesting sites if disturbed ground nesting species in particular; such as fairy; little and roseate terns; are susceptible to human disturbance during the breeding season invasive species pest species; such as foxes; cats and rats; can substantially reduce the reproductive success of ground nesting seabirds light pollution; particularly for species such as the wedge tailed shearwater that have nocturnal habits oil pollution; particularly for those species that feed by diving or plunging into the water; including the brown and red footed booby; wedge tailed shearwater; tern species and the white tailed tropicbird climate change (changes in sea temperature; sea level rise and ocean acidification). . 242

Marine bioregional plan for the North west Marine Region

Pressures of potential concern on migratory shorebirds in the region are climate change (changes in sea temperature; sea level rise; ocean acidification and physical habitat modification from increasing storm intensity and frequency) light pollution (onshore and offshore infrastructure) oil pollution invasive species human presence at sensitive sites disturbance of important areas can impact on birds’ feeding activities or cause disturbance to roosting birds; and deplete energy reserves otherwise to be used for migration. o The following actions have a high risk of a significant impact on the 13 migratory shorebird species Actions which have a real chance or possibility of increasing lighting and flaring such that migration; foraging or roosting behaviours are seriously disrupted.

Pressures of potential concern on whale shark; green sawfish and freshwater sawfish in and adjacent to the North west Marine Region include extraction of living resources as a result of international commercial fishing (for whale shark) changes to hydrological regimes (e.g. installation of weirs); which may restrict species movement and limit the availability of suitable habitat for green and freshwater sawfish bycatch as a result of commercial and recreational fishing and marine debris the saw like rostrum of sawfish makes these species extremely susceptible to capture in fishing gear and entanglement in marine debris changes in sea temperature and sea level rise as a result of climate change. . .

The main drivers and sources of anthropogenic pressure on conservation values in the region are climate change and associated large scale effects; including shifts in major currents; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and changes in the variability and extremes of climatic features (e.g. sea temperature; winds; storm frequency and intensity) domestic and international harvesting of living resources increasing petroleum and mineral exploration and development rapid industrial development in areas adjacent to the region increases in shipping activities and development of port infrastructure.

Table 4.2 Pressures of regional priority for the North west Marine Region Pressure Rationale Strategies and actions identified to address the priority (see Section 4.2) Climate change Strategy A; Action Strategy B; Action Strategy G; Action Climate change related pressures; including changes in sea temperature; oceanographic processes; ocean acidification; sea level and storm intensity; are predicted to increase in the North west Marine Region with the potential to impact many conservation values to varying extents.

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 m to 1.0 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Under pre climate change conditions; reefs could be expected to grow upward to match sea level rise.

Climate change modelling predicts that by 2070 ocean water temperatures at a depth of 500 m will warm by 0.5 1 C; which could adversely impact larval fish development and survival (Hobday et al. 2006).

Increases in ocean acidification may alter prey availability and have a physiological effect on many species; although an accurate calculation of impacts is not possible at present (Howard et al. 2009 Raven et al. 2005).

Evidence from various parts of northern Australia outside the North west Marine Region points to episodic losses of hundreds of square kilometres of seagrass associated with extreme weather events; such as cyclones and floods (Preen Marsh 1995 Preen et al. 1995 Poiner Peterkin 1996).

Light availability for seagrass is typically significantly reduced after extreme weather events and deposited sediments can physically smother seagrass surfaces (Cabaco et al. 2008).

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; acidification is already underway and detectible.

Ocean acidification may lead to metabolic changes in young and adult sea snakes and changes in the availability of sea snake prey.

However; without further focused research; any predicted ocean acidification impacts on sea snakes remain speculative (Hamann et al. 2007).

As efficient indicators of ecosystem health due to their sensitivities to changes at lower trophic levels; seabirds may be one of the first species groups to register the changes wrought by ocean acidification (Hobday et al. 2006).

Table S1.2 Summary of pressures on key ecological features and historic shipwrecks of the North west Marine Region Pressure Key ecological feature Sea level rise Changes in sea temperature Ocean acidification Changes in oceanography Chemical pollution contaminants Nutrient pollution Marine debris Noise pollution 1.

Table S1.2 continued Summary of pressures on key ecological features and historic shipwrecks of the North west Marine Region Pressure Key ecological feature Sea level rise Changes in sea temperature Ocean acidification Changes in oceanography Chemical pollution contaminants Nutrient pollution Marine debris Noise pollution 10.

Ocean acidification will compromise carbon accretion and; together with increasing ocean temperatures; may result in loss of ecosystems based on geologic features formed from coral or coralline algae (Hoegh Guldberg 2011 Hoegh Guldberg et al. 2007 Kleypas Yates 2009 Kuffner et al. 2008).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1.0 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

The main concern with sea level rise is the potential consequences when this pressure is combined with increasing cyclone frequency (Climate Commission 2011 DCC 2009).

Furthermore; climate models predict this trend will continue; with a further 0.2 0. unit decline by 2100 (Howard et al. 2009) Increased acidity in the North west Marine Region may alter prey availability and may also have a physiological effect on many species; although accurate calculation of impacts is not possible at present (Howard et al. 2009 Raven et al. 2005).

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric Co; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; acidification is already underway and detectible.

Ocean acidification will compromise carbon accretion and; together with increasing ocean temperatures; may result in loss of ecosystems based on geological features formed from coral or coralline algae (Hoegh Guldberg et al. 2007 Hoegh Guldberg 2011 Kleypas Yates 2009 Kuffner et al. 2008).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

The main concern with rising sea levels is the increased risk of extreme sea level risks when sea level rise is combined with increasing cyclone frequency (Climate Commission 2011 DCC 2009).

Under pre climate change conditions; reefs could be expected to grow upward to match sea level rise.

A study of the supply and survival of reef fish larvae and high sea temperatures during an El Niño event in the 1990s showed that fish survival on coral reef habitats declined it also predicted negative effects on reef fish communities under climate change scenarios (Lo Yat et al. 2011).

Climate change modelling predicts that by 2070; ocean water temperatures at 500 metres depth will warm by 0.5 1 C; which could adversely impact larval fish development and survival (Hobday et al. 2006).

Ocean acidification climate change Ocean acidification is of potential concern for all key ecological features in the region.

Habitat modification through physical damage as a result of increased intensity of storm events from climate change is of potential concern for Ashmore Reef and Cartier Island and surrounding Commonwealth waters Seringapatam Reef and Commonwealth waters in the Scott Reef Complex Mermaid Reef and Commonwealth waters surrounding the Rowley Shoals. . .

One of the predictions for climate change is the increase in the severity and frequency of severe storm events (Hyder Consulting 2008).

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; acidification is already underway and detectable.

Ocean acidification will compromise carbon accretion and; together with increasing ocean temperatures; may result in loss of ecosystems based on geologic features formed from coral or coralline algae (Hoegh Guldberg 2011 Hoegh Guldberg et al. 2007 Kleypas Yates 2009 Kuffner et al. 2008).

The pressures identified as of potential concern are considered in two groups pressures associated with habitat loss due to climate change and industrial developments and pressures associated with human induced mortality of dugongs.

Pressures associated with habitat loss Dugong habitat loss is likely to increase in the North west Marine Region due to the large scale industrial development occurring in the region and the impacts of climate change.

The implications of climate change on seagrass distribution in the region are uncertain but could result in a decline in the extent and or health of seagrass meadows.

Thus pressures associated with both industrial development and climate change (and their cumulative impacts) are of potential concern for dugongs in the North west Marine Region because they are likely to lead to the loss of dugong habitat and; consequently; population decline.

Loss of dugong habitat associated with climate change Sea level rise climate change Sea level has been rising at approximately 7.1 millimetres per year in the North west Marine Region since the 1990s; the largest increase in Australia (National Tidal Centre 2010).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1.0 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

The main concern with sea level rise is the potential consequences when sea level rise is combined with increasing cyclone frequency (Climate Commission 2011 DCC 2009).

The likelihood of seagrass impacts due to climate change induced sea level rise is linked to the location specific interaction between climate; geomorphology and hydrology.

Changes in sea temperature climate change The likely increase in sea temperature associated with climate change is of potential concern for dugongs in the North west Marine Region.

Waycott et al. (2007) argue that elevated temperature will result in the greatest climate change impact on seagrasses; particularly in shallow habitats.

Physical habitat modification storm events The likely increase in the intensity of storm events associated with climate change is of potential concern for dugongs and their habitats in the North west Marine Region.

Modelling predicts that climate change will result in increased intensity of storms and storm surges (Connolly 2009 Hyder Consulting 2008).

Evidence from various parts of northern Australia outside the North west Marine Region points to episodic losses of hundreds of square kilometres of seagrass associated with extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods (Poiner Peterkin 1996 Preen Marsh 1995 Preen et al. 1995).

Light availability for seagrass is typically significantly reduced after extreme weather events and deposited sediments can physically smother seagrass surfaces (Cabaço et al. 2008).

Changes in terrestrial sand temperature climate change Increased sand temperature is considered to be of potential concern for flatback; green; hawksbill and loggerhead turtles.

Although not strictly linked with sea temperature; another effect of rising global temperatures is the trend towards an increasing female bias in the sex ratio of hatchlings (Fuentes et al. 2009).

Sea snakes Changes in sea temperature climate change Changes in sea temperature associated with climate change are of potential concern for sea snakes.

Ocean acidification climate change The effects of ocean acidification on sea snakes are unknown but are of potential concern.

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; acidification is already underway and detectible.

In addition; Physical habitat modification’ from increasing storm intensity and frequency as a result of climate change is of potential concern for shorebirds in the North west Marine Region.

These climate change outcomes have the potential to adversely affect terrestrial nesting and roosting habitats and the distribution and abundance of important prey species for seabirds; and adversely affect feeding and roosting sites for migratory shorebirds.

Climate change is likely to lead to earlier or later nesting; an expansion or shift in ranges southward; the loss of nesting sites and foraging habitat through rises in sea level; and changes in availability and abundance of food resources (Crick 2004; Lawrence Soame 2004; Hobday et al. 2006).

There is also evidence that arrival and departure dates for migratory species are changing and that this may be linked to changes in climate (Beaumont et al. 2006).

Sea level rise climate change Sea level has been rising at approximately 7.1 millimetres per year in the North west Marine Region since the 1990s; the largest increase in Australia (National Tidal Centre 2010).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1.0 metres by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

The main concern with sea level rise is the potential consequences when sea level rise is combined with increasing cyclone frequency (Climate Commission 2011 DCC 2009).

Physical habitat modification climate change (change in storm frequency) Increased frequencies of extreme storm events are predicted to significantly alter coastal landscapes; particularly sandy beaches and low lying islands; resulting in changes to the structure; function and capacity of coastal ecosystems to deliver ecosystem function (Fitzgerald et al. 2008; Hopkinson et al. 2008; Schlacher et al. 2008; Mcleod et al. 2010; Erwin et al. 2011).

Changes in sea temperature climate change Sea temperatures have warmed by 0.7 C between 1910 1929 and 1989 2008; and current projections estimate ocean temperatures will be 1 C warmer by 2030 (Lough 2009).

The climate change scenarios for mid western Australia applied to Ningaloo Marine Park can be used as indicative scenarios for the North west Marine Region and include a 5.1 C rise in annual average temperature by 2070 (Lawrence et al. 2007).

There is insufficient nesting habitat to accommodate a large increase in displacement of seabirds and shorebirds from the North west Marine Region to the South west Marine Region as a result of shifts in climate change.

Ocean acidification climate change Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; acidification is already underway and detectible.

Ocean acidification is brought about by an increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere forming carbonic acid in sea water.

There is a high level of uncertainty about the effects of ocean acidification on marine life and too little information on the likely impacts of changing ocean chemistry on seabirds and shorebirds to predict likely future impacts.

As efficient indicators of ecosystem health due to their sensitivities to changes at lower trophic levels; seabirds may be one of the first species groups to register the changes wrought by ocean acidification (Hobday et al. 2006).

The adverse effects of ocean acidification on seabirds and shorebirds is presently unknown; but can be expected to be significant from the altered ecological conditions predicted (Grémillet and Boulinier 2009).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1.0 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

The main concern with sea level rise is the potential consequences when sea level rise is combined with increasing cyclone frequency (Climate Commission 2011 DCC 2009).

In an analysis for the Great Barrier Reef region; sawfishes were ranked as moderately vulnerable overall to climate change; with high exposure to the effects of rising sea levels (Chin et al. 2010).

Climate change has the potential to change water temperature and oceanographic currents; thereby significantly affecting the availability of prey and consequently the distribution of whale sharks.

Although there is little empirical data on effects of climate change on whale sharks; there is some evidence to suggest that the abundance of whale sharks at Ningaloo is correlated to various climatic conditions therefore changes in climate could potentially alter this relationship.

It is possible that changes in oceanographic processes and temperature as a result of climate change could magnify the climate related seasonal abundance of whale sharks at Ningaloo.

Any modification of currents as a result of climate change would likely have implications for not only whale sharks but the whole Ningaloo ecosystem.

Climate change modelling predicts that ocean warming will cause large southward shifts in the distribution of many tropical and subtropical zooplankton; displacing many local species; as well as earlier annual appearance of many groups (Hobday et al. 2006).