Kangaroo Island Crimson Rosella  |  

Climate change Increased likelihood of Status historical; current future Average temperatures in Australia extreme events (i.e.; Confidence known have increased by around 1.4 C in heatwave and drought) the past century (BOM CSIRO Consequence severe 2020 IPCC 2021); and global Trend increasing temperatures are likely to exceed Extent across the entire range 1.5 C in the next 20 years if global greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced immediately (IPCC 2021).
The cumulative effect of the climate anomalies has led to; and will continue to; increase the likelihood of extreme events such as droughts and heatwaves (BOM CSIRO 2020).
This change in climate may have detrimental impact on Kangaroo Island Crimson Rosella and their habitat.
Climate anomalies will also increase the risk of wildfire (see Increase in frequent; large extent; high intensity wildfires).
An analysis by the Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel; based on intersecting the modelled distribution of the Kangaroo Island Crimson Rosella and the National Indicative Aggregated Fire Extent Dataset; indicated that 76 of the range of the subspecies was within the extent of the 2019 2020 bushfires (Legge et al. 2021).
Threats The most prominent threat that has caused the subspecies to decline is frequent; large extent; high severity wildfire particularly the 2019 2020 bushfires; where half of the Kangaroo Island was impacted (Paton et al. 2021).
While fire is integral to the ecology of Kangaroo Island; the 2019 2020 bushfires were the most extreme in recorded history and were unprecedented in their scale; speed and intensity (Government of South Australia 2020b).
Extreme fire weather (Di Virgilio et al. 2019 Dowdy et al. 2019) driven by longer and more severe droughts (Evans et al. 2017) and more frequent heatwaves (Herold et al. 2018) is likely to increase in frequency and intensity in coming decades and poses the greatest risk to the subspecies (Paton et al. 2021).
The flammable nature of some weeds; including non endemic species such as Tasmanian Blue Gum (Eucalyptus globulus); may also increase fire risk and severity (Government of South Australia 2021).
Table 1 Threats impacting Kangaroo Island Crimson Rosella Threat Status and severity a Evidence Fire Increase in frequent; large Status historical; current future While fire is vital to the ecology of extent; high severity Confidence known Kangaroo Island; the 2019 wildfires bushfires were the most extreme in Consequence severe recorded history; burning Trend increasing approximately half of the island Extent across the entire range (DEW 2020 Todd Maurer 2020).
Proposed changes include increased fire prevention works such as prescribed burns; mechanical vegetation removal and increased asset protection zones and buffer zones (Birdlife Australia 2021; pers comm 02 July 2021).
For example Ensure fire suppression strategies also consider impacts on the population or its habitat.
Improve knowledge of the impacts of fire on the subspecies including ecology; behaviour and their habitat; and their ability to re colonise recently burnt areas.
The number of locations was determined using the 2019 2020 fire extent on Kangaroo Island; which heavily impacted the western side of Kangaroo Island; though unburnt habitat fragments remained within the fire affected area.
The risk of a fire extirpating all individuals on the eastern side of the island was considered.
Given there are lower fuel loads and less contiguous vegetation cover in east; as well as greater access to fire fighting resources; the risk of fire impacting this entire area is reduced.
Extreme fire weather (Di Virgilio et al. 2019 Dowdy et al. 2019) driven by longer and more severe droughts (Evans et al. 2017) and more frequent heatwaves (Herold et al. 2018) is likely to increase in frequency and intensity in coming decades and poses the greatest risk to the subspecies (Paton et al. 2021).

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