Right now; our iconic marine environment is coming under more and more pressure from industry; from pollution and; increasingly; from climate change.

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Changes in oceanography broadly refer to changes in ocean circulation patterns current intensities wind strength and direction the location and strength of eddy and upwelling events and climatic oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Pressures of potential concern on this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea temperatures and oceanographic processes; and causing ocean acidification.

Pressures of potential concern on this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea temperatures and oceanographic processes.

Pressures of potential concern on this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea temperatures and oceanographic processes.

Pressures of potential concern on this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea temperatures and oceanographic processes.

Pressures of potential concern on this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea temperatures and oceanographic processes; and causing ocean acidification.

O Pressures of potential concern on this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea temperatures and oceanographic processes; and causing ocean acidification.

A pressure of concern on this key ecological feature is climate change; which has the potential to alter the ecological values of this feature through changes to sea temperature and ocean acidification.

Pressures of potential concern on the ecosystem functioning and integrity of this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea levels and oceanographic processes.

Pressures of potential concern on this key ecological feature include climate change; which has the potential to alter ecological values through changes to sea temperatures and oceanographic processes; and causing ocean acidification.

Pressures of potential concern include climate change (sea level rise; changes in sea temperature; oceanography and storm events and ocean acidification) chemical pollution contaminants and nutrient pollution associated with urban development and agricultural activities marine debris noise pollution associated with shipping and urban development physical habitat modification associated with dredging activities oil pollution associated with shipping collision with vessels changes in hydrological regimes.

Other potential pressures include climate change (changes in sea temperature and oceanography; ocean acidification); oil pollution and chemical pollution contaminants associated with shipping; light pollution associated with land based activities; marine debris and human presence at sensitive sites associated with tourism; recreational and charter fishing and research activities.

Other potential pressures 156

Marine bioregional plan for the Temperate East Marine Region include bycatch associated with commercial fishing activities; climate change (changes in sea temperatures and oceanography; ocean acidification); oil pollution and chemical pollution contaminants associated with shipping; light pollution associated with land based activities shortfin and longfin; marine debris and human presence at sensitive sites associated with tourism; recreational and charter fishing and research activities.

Potential pressures on this species include climate change (changes in sea temperatures and oceanography).

Potential pressures on this species include climate change (changes in sea temperature and oceanography) and physical habitat modification.

Pressures of potential concern on humpback whales include climate change (changes in sea temperature; oceanography and ocean acidification) marine debris from a range of sources bycatch associated with bather protection programs. . . .

Pressures of potential concern on the Indo Pacific humpback dolphin include climate change (sea level rise; changes in sea temperature and oceanography and ocean acidification) chemical pollution contaminants and nutrient pollution associated with urban development and agricultural activities marine debris from a range of sources noise pollution associated with shipping and urban development physical habitat modification associated with dredging oil pollution associated with shipping collision with vessels changes in hydrological regimes. . 170

Marine bioregional plan for the Temperate East Marine Region People planning to undertake actions in biologically important areas for cetaceans should carefully consider the potential for their actions to have a significant impact on the species.

The green turtle is vulnerable to extraction of living resources associated with (non domestic) commercial fishing activities bycatch from commercial fishing activities climate change (sea level rise) marine debris from a range of sources and collision with vessels.

The loggerhead turtle is vulnerable to bycatch from commercial fishing activities climate change (sea level rise; changes in sea and sand temperatures) marine debris from a range of sources and collision with vessels.

Pressures of potential concern on all seabird species in the region include climate change (changes in sea temperature and oceanography; ocean acidification) oil and chemical pollution contaminants associated with shipping marine debris from a range of sources human presence at sensitive sites (e.g. breeding colonies). . . .

Pressures of potential concern include human presence at sensitive sites and changes in sea temperature and oceanography associated with climate change.

The main drivers and sources of anthropogenic pressure on conservation values in the region are climate change and associated large scale effects; including shifts in major currents; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and changes in the variability and extremes of climatic features (e.g. sea temperature; winds; storm frequency and intensity) extraction of living resources increasing urban and industrial development in areas adjacent to the region increasing shipping and port activities. .

These are physical habitat modification (dredging and dredge spoil); climate change (ocean acidification; sea level rise; changes in sea temperature; changes in oceanography; changes in hydrological regimes); oil pollution (shipping); chemical pollution (onshore activities e.g. agriculture) and nutrient pollution (onshore activities e.g. agriculture); noise pollution (shipping; urban development); collision with the vessels and marine debris.

Pressures of potential concern include climate change (changes in sea temperature; changes in oceanography) and human presence at sensitive sites.

Pressures rated of potential concern are climate change (changes in sea temperature and oceanography; ocean acidification); oil and chemical pollution and contaminants (shipping); marine debris; light pollution (for selected petrel and shearwater species); bycatch (for selected shearwater species) associated with commercial and recreational fishing and human presence at sensitive sites.

Pressures rated of potential concern are climate change (changes in sea temperature and oceanography; ocean acidification); oil and chemical pollution and contaminants (shipping); marine debris; light pollution (for selected petrel and shearwater species); bycatch (for selected shearwater species) associated with commercial and recreational fishing and human presence at sensitive sites.

The ecosystem functioning and integrity of the canyons are subject to a number of pressures rated as of potential concern physical habitat modification; bycatch and extraction of living resources (commercial fishing); climate change (changes to sea temperature and oceanography); marine debris; and oil and chemical pollution contaminants (shipping).

The ecosystem functioning and integrity of this key ecological feature is subject to a number of pressures rated as of potential concern bycatch and extraction of a living resources (commercial fishing); climate change (changes to sea temperature and oceanography); marine debris; and shipping related oil and chemical pollution contaminants.

The ecosystem functioning and integrity of the upwelling are subject to a number of pressures rated as of potential concern bycatch and extraction of living resources (commercial fishing); climate change (changes to sea temperature and oceanography); marine debris; and ship related oil and chemical pollution.

The ecosystem functioning and integrity of this key ecological feature is subject to a number of pressures rated as of potential concern bycatch and extraction of living resources (commercial fishing); climate change (changes to sea temperature and oceanography); marine debris; and shipping related oil and chemical pollution.

The ecosystem functioning and integrity of the seamount chain are subject to a number of pressures rated of potential concern bycatch and extraction of living resources (commercial fishing activities); climate change (ocean acidification; changes to sea temperature and oceanography); marine debris; and shipping related oil and chemical pollution.

The ecosystem functioning and integrity of the reefs are vulnerable to climate change impacts; particularly changes in sea temperature and ocean acidification; pressures that have been rated as of concern.

Climate change has been identified as a priority because of the extent of predicted impacts on conservation values in the region; particularly the cumulative nature of these impacts.

The conservation values selected for the pressure analysis are discussed in Part 3 of the plan. 50

Marine bioregional plan for the Temperate East Marine Region IN Table S1.1 Pressures and sources of pressures available for selection in the Temperate East Marine Region pressure analysis Pressure Source Sea level rise Climate change Changes in sea temperature Climate change Urban development Climate change Climate change Changes in oceanography Ocean acidification Climate change Changes in terrestrial sand temperature Chemical pollution contaminants Shipping Vessels (other) Aquaculture operations Renewable energy operations Urban development (urban and or industrial infrastructure) Agricultural activities Onshore and offshore mining operations Aquaculture operations Agricultural activities Urban development Dredging (spoil dumping) Land based activities Nutrient pollution Changes in turbidity Onshore and offshore mining operations Climate change (changes in rainfall; storm frequency) Marine debris Land based activities Fishing boats Shipping Vessels (other) Oil rigs Aquaculture infrastructure Renewable energy infrastructure Urban development Pressure Source Noise pollution Seismic exploration Urban development Defence surveillance activities Shipping Vessels (other) Aquaculture infrastructure Renewable energy infrastructure Onshore and offshore mining operations Onshore and offshore construction Light pollution Oil and gas infrastructure Fishing boats Vessels (other) Land based activities Onshore and offshore activities Physical habitat modification Renewable energy infrastructure Onshore and offshore mining operations Fishing gear (active and derelict) Dredging (and or dredge spoil) Shipping (anchorage) Defence surveillance activities Telecommunications cables Offshore construction and installation of infrastructure Onshore and offshore construction Offshore mining operations Ship grounding Tourism (diving; snorkelling) Climate change (changes in storm frequency etc.) Urban coastal development 52

Marine bioregional plan for the Temperate East Marine Region

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 1 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Predictive climate models indicate that the unique; deep; cold water reefs and sponge gardens of the Norfolk Ridge; shelf edge and seamount chains are also at risk from a similar range of impacts (Cohen Holcomb 2009 Howard et al. 2009 Hyder Consulting 2008).

Changes in oceanography include consideration of circulation patterns current intensities wind strength and direction the location and strength of eddy and upwelling events and climatic oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

In New South Wales ocean current changes resulting from climate change are predicted to cause a reduction in the flow of freshwater to estuaries; and an increase in nutrient laden waters in near coastal areas.

In particular; the ongoing building and repair of seawalls; designed to protect low lying foreshore infrastructure from sea level rise associated with climate change (DTIRIS 2012) can have a detrimental effect on flows; vegetation and habitat; impacting juvenile black cod.

Longer term predictions estimate dolphin increases of 0.5 1 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Climate variability may also affect other Sei whale cetaceans for example; research on climate variability and reproduction in southern right whales Southern right whale suggests a detrimental impact on reproductive success with warming events (Pirzl et al. 2008).

Predictive climate models have medium confidence that this trend will increase (Ridgway Hill 2009).

Sei whale Southern right whale Indo Pacific (coastal) bottlenose dolphin Indo Pacific humpback dolphin Blue whale Ocean acidification (climate change) Dwarf minke whale Humpback whale Killer whale Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; acidification is already under way and detectable.

While there are no observed impacts of climate change on zooplankton in Australian waters; based on knowledge of impacts elsewhere; Australia is likely to start losing calcifying zooplankton from its southern waters (Richardson et al. 2009).

Collisions with vessels (shipping; tourism; fishing) Indo Pacific (coastal) bottlenose dolphin Indo Pacific humpback dolphin Changes in hydrological regimes (climate change) Indo Pacific (coastal) bottlenose dolphin Indo Pacific humpback dolphin Changes in hydrological regimes through; for example; an increase in the frequency and intensity of storm and flooding events could impact on nearshore environments used by inshore dolphins.

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 1 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 1 m by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

The impacts of ocean acidification on seabirds are expected to be indirect; through changes in the abundance; availability and distribution of prey species.

Overall; changes in sea temperatures and oceanography were considered of potential concern to many of the key ecological features and species; with ocean acidification of greater significance for deep and shallow water reef features; cetaceans and seabirds and sea level rise more important for habitats associated with inshore dolphins and some breeding seabirds.

Table S1.2 Summary of pressures on key ecological features and historic shipwrecks of the Temperate East Marine Region Pressure Key ecological feature Sea level rise Changes in sea temperature Change in oceanography Ocean acidification Chemical pollution contaminants Nutrient pollution Marine debris Noise pollution Light pollution 1.

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; ocean acidification is already under way and detectable.

Elizabeth and Middleton reefs are valued for their aggregations of marine life and biodiversity; and expected impacts of acidification include a reduction in coral growth rates and resilience; which may make the reef systems more vulnerable to erosion and disturbance from storms (Anthony Marshall 2009) and affect the ability of molluscs; echinoderms and some planktonic organisms to form skeletal material (Doney et al. 2009).

The direct impacts of ocean acidification are expected to be most marked for organisms with calcareous skeletons; such as corals; plankton; molluscs and echinoderms (Doney et al. 2009).

For this region; increased ocean acidification and sea surface temperatures are predicted to have combined impacts; prompting reef conditions to shift from marginal’ (Kleypas et al. 1999) to ‘extremely marginal’ by the middle of this century (Noreen 2010).

Recent research indicates significant impacts of ocean acidification on Antarctic krill (Kawaguchi et al. 2011); which are a key food source for many whale species that visit Australian waters.

Two aspects of climate change are emerging as pressures of potential concern however; and are discussed in more detail below.

Changes in sea temperature climate change Sea temperatures have warmed by 0.7 C between 1910 1929 and 1989 2008; and current projections estimate ocean temperatures will be a further 1 C warmer by 2030 (Lough 2009).

As with changes in oceanography; most research on the impacts of changing sea temperature at depth due to climate change has concentrated on ecosystem level effects.

The same research warns of a significant destabilising of methane reservoirs along continental margins; which may accelerate climate change (Weaver et al. 2009).

Changes in zonal winds that influence oceanographic processes and productivity have been declining due to climate change (Hobday et al. 2008); and may have consequences for mesopelagic fish species such as eastern gemfish and black cod.

Physical modification of estuarine habitats is considered of potential concern to black cod in their juvenile stage; particularly through the ongoing building and repair of seawalls designed to protect low lying foreshore infrastructure from sea level rise associated with climate change (DTIRIS 2012).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

For example; research on climate variability and reproduction in southern right whales suggests that warming events have a detrimental impact on reproductive success (Pirzl et al. 2008).

There are no observed impacts of climate change on zooplankton in Australian waters however; based on knowledge of impacts elsewhere; Australia is likely to begin losing calcifying zooplankton from its southern waters (Richardson et al. 2009).

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; ocean acidification is already underway and detectable.

For cetaceans; the most marked impact of ocean acidification is likely to be the distribution and availability of prey.

Recent research on the effects of ocean acidification on Antarctic krill has found that increased carbon dioxide concentrations kill their embryos (Kawaguchi et al. 2011).

High rainfall and increased catchment run off associated with storm and flood events increase dolphins’ exposure to toxins (Lawler et al. 2007).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 1 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Changes in sea temperature climate change Changing sea temperature is of concern for Elizabeth and Middleton reefs; and of potential concern to the remaining seven key ecological features.

Ocean acidification climate change Ocean acidification is of concern for Elizabeth and Middleton reefs; and of potential concern to the Tasmantid and Lord Howe seamount chains; Norfolk Ridge and the shelf rocky reefs.

Predictive climate models indicate that the unique; deep; cold water reefs and sponge gardens of the Norfolk Ridge; shelf edge and seamount chains are also at risk from a similar range of impacts (Cohen Holcomb 2009 Howard et al. 2009 Hyder Consulting 2008).

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric CO and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; ocean acidification is already under way and detectable.

Direct impacts of ocean acidification are expected to be most marked for organisms with calcareous skeletons; such as corals; plankton; molluscs and echinoderms (Doney et al. 2009).

For the Temperate East Marine Region; increased ocean acidification and sea surface temperatures are predicted to work in conjunction; prompting reef conditions to shift from marginal’ (Kleypas et al. 1999) to extremely marginal by the middle of this century (Noreen 2010).

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Changes in terrestrial sand temperatures climate change Changes in terrestrial sand temperatures; particularly increases in temperatures; were considered to be of concern for the loggerhead turtle and of potential concern for the green turtle.

Longer term predictions estimate increases of 0.5 to 1 metre by 2100; relative to 2000 levels (Climate Commission 2011).

Changes in oceanography broadly refer to changes in circulation patterns current intensities wind strength and direction the location and strength of eddy and upwelling events and climatic oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Driven by increasing levels of atmospheric Co; and subsequent chemical changes in the ocean; ocean acidification is already under way and detectable.

For example; recent research indicates potentially significant impacts of ocean acidification on Antarctic krill (Kawaguchi et al. 2011); which are a food source for many seabird species that visit Australian waters.

Because seabirds are sensitive to changes at lower trophic levels; they may be one of the first species groups to register the changes brought about by ocean acidification (Hobday et al. 2006).